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Energy and Environment, 1995

ISBN:
1-56700-052-5 (Print)

TRIAL SOLUTIONS TO A MODEL FOR THE PROJECTION OF FUTURE CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS IN CHINA

Richard S. Eckaus
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Supriya Lahiri
University of Massachusetts at Lowell, USA

Zongxin Wu
Tsinghua University, China

Abstract

The Institute of Nuclear Energy Technology of Tsinghua University and the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change, MIT are collaborating in developing a multisector, multiperiod non-linear programming model of greenhouse gas emissions in China which provides complete overall and intertemporal consistency. The growth rates of carbon dioxide emissions projected for China by the INET/MIT model are relatively high due to higher projected overall economic growth rates and higher emissions intensities. The main explanations for these results are in the greater detail, which shows the dominant role of coal, that, in turn, is due to the relatively limited domestic reserves of oil and natural gas, and the difficulty of exporting enough to pay for imports of oil and refined products and/or natural gas at levels that would be necessary to significantly Teduce the use of coal.