ENERGETIKA

ISSN for PRINT: 0235-7208

For Online Access

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2004, Volume1

Issue 4

90 pages

Issue price - $29.00

Robertas Alzbutas
Lietuvos energetikos institutas, Branduoliniø áenginiø saugos laboratorija, Breslaujos g. 3, LT-44403; and Kauno technologijos universitetas, Fundamentaliøjø mokslø fakultetas, Studentø g. 50, LT-51368, Kaunas, Lithuania

Gintautas Dundulis
Lietuvos energetikos institutas, Branduoliniø áenginiø saugos laboratorija, Breslaujos g. 3, LT-44403 Kaunas, Lithuania

A probabilistic simulation of a group distribution header (GDH) guillotine rupture and the damage consequences resulting from the failed GDH impacting against a neighboring wall was carried out. The Monte Carlo simulation method was used to study the sensitivity of the deterministic model response and the effect of uncertainties of material properties and geometry parameters to the probability of failure. Using the FORM method, the probability of limiting states related to failure of the support-wall and the impacted-wall was calculated. According to these limiting states the damage of wall supporting GDH and wall affected by GDH stroke was determined. The RS/MCS method was applied to express failure probability as a function and to investigate the dependence between the impact load and failure probability. The obtained probabilistic estimates and the investigation of a dependence between loads and damage probability confirm a relatively low probability and thus a low risk of such conditional events.

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