ENERGETIKA

ISSN for PRINT: 0235-7208

For Online Access

Best Paper Award Selection - Editorial Board Site

2005, Volume2

Issue 1

79 pages

Issue price - $29.00

Jurgita Simaityte-Volskiene
Lietuvos energetikos institutas, Branduoliniø árenginiø saugos laboratorija, Breslaujos g. 3, LT-44403; Vytauto Didþiojo universitetas, Matematikos ir statistikos katedra, Vileikos g. 8, LT-44404 Kaunas, Lithuania

In the risk analysis for hydraulic objects, an important step is to evaluate the risk of extreme floods. The paper presents a real time flood forecast model development, which consists of three stages: 1) statistical historical analysis of floods; 2) flood hydrograph shape analytical development; 3) flood forecast in the Bayesian approach. A case study analyses the Nemunas River flow data near the Kaunas hydropower station dam. The results revealed that the Nemunas flood hydrograph shape is best represented by the two-parameter beta probability density function, which later is used for flood forecast calculations. Bthe Bayesian approach enables to recalculate a flood forecast every day according to new flow measurements.

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