The increase of the atmospheric C02 can affect the agricultural production, which is very sensitive to climatic change. The predicted global warming by general circulation models (GCM) suggests an increase in the temperature over Europe of about 1-3°C. Temperature is an important meteorological factor for plant growth. Therefore, small variation of temperature may cause important effects on the plant growth and indirectly on the production. It may also lead to change in distribution patterns, yield and quality of crops.
The aim of this study is to estimate the effects of the variations of the temperature on the yield and phenology of maize in Austria using the CERES-Maize crop-climate model. The measured data are used to estimate the climatic effects on the maize growth in the CERES-Maize model that are logged during the growing season 1992 of maize by using an agricultural meteorological station nearby the University of Agriculture, Vienna. The following scenarios are used to anticipate the effect of climatic change on the maize yield by this model, namely successive temperature increases and decreases 1°C, 2°C, 3°C and 4°C.